A mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 immunity predicts paxlovid rebound.

Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (Paxlovid), an oral antiviral medication targeting SARS-CoV-2, remains an important treatment for COVID-19. Initial studies of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir were performed in SARS-CoV-2 unvaccinated patients without prior confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection; however, most individuals have now either been vaccinated and/or have experienced SARS-CoV-2 infection. After nirmatrelvir/ritonavir became widely available, reports surfaced of "Paxlovid rebound," a phenomenon in which symptoms (and SARS-CoV-2 test positivity) would initially resolve, but after finishing treatment, symptoms and test positivity would return. We used a previously described parsimonious mathematical model of immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection to model the effect of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir treatment in unvaccinated and vaccinated patients. Model simulations show that viral rebound after treatment occurs only in vaccinated patients, while unvaccinated (SARS-COV-2 naïve) patients treated with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir do not experience any rebound in viral load. This work suggests that an approach combining parsimonious models of the immune system could be used to gain important insights in the context of emerging pathogens.

Risk Factors for New Neurologic Diagnoses in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19: A Case-Control Study in New York City.

Background and Objectives: There have been numerous reports of neurologic manifestations identified in hospitalized patients infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Here, we identify the spectrum of associated neurologic symptoms and diagnoses, define the time course of their development, and examine readmission rates and mortality risk posthospitalization in a multiethnic urban cohort. Methods: We identify the occurrence of new neurologic diagnoses among patients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in New York City. A retrospective cohort study was performed on 532 cases (hospitalized patients with new neurologic diagnoses within 6 weeks of positive SARS-CoV-2 laboratory results between March 1, 2020, and August 31, 2020). We compare demographic and clinical features of the 532 cases with 532 controls (hospitalized COVID-19 patients without neurologic diagnoses) in a case-control study with one-to-one matching and examine hospital-related data and outcomes of death and readmission up to 6 months after acute hospitalization in a secondary case-only analysis. Results: Among the 532 cases, the most common new neurologic diagnoses included encephalopathy (478, 89.8%), stroke (66, 12.4%), and seizures (38, 7.1%). In the case-control study, cases were more likely than controls to be male (58.6% vs 52.8%, p = 0.05), had baseline neurologic comorbidities (36.3% vs 13.0%, p < 0.0001), and were to be treated in an intensive care unit (62.0% vs 9.6%, p < 0.0001). Of the 394 (74.1%) cases who survived acute hospitalization, more than half (220 of 394, 55.8%) were readmitted within 6 months, with a mortality rate of 23.2% during readmission. Discussion: Hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV-2 and new neurologic diagnoses have significant morbidity and mortality postdischarge. Further research is needed to define the effect of neurologic diagnoses during acute hospitalization on longitudinal post-COVID-19-related symptoms including neurocognitive impairment.

Heart rate variability and adrenal size provide clues to sudden cardiac death in hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

PURPOSE: To examine the association between a measure of heart rate variability and sudden cardiac death (SCD) in COVID-19 patients. METHODS: Patients with SARS-COV-2 infection admitted to Columbia University Irving Medical Center who died between 4/25/2020 and 7/14/2020 and had an autopsy were examined for root mean square of successive differences (RMSSD), organ weights, and evidence of SCD. RESULTS: Thirty COVID-19 patients were included and 12 had SCD. The RMSSD over 7 days without vs with SCD was median 0.0129 (IQR 0.0074-0.026) versus 0.0098 (IQR 0.0056-0.0197), p < 0.0001. The total adjusted adrenal weight of the non-SCD group was 0.40 g/kg (IQR 0.35-0.55) versus 0.25 g/kg (IQR 0.21-0.31) in the SCD group, p = 0.0007. CONCLUSIONS: Hospitalized patients with COVID-19 who experienced SCD had lower parasympathetic activity (RMSSD) and smaller sized adrenal glands. Further research is required to replicate these findings.

Prolonged Unconsciousness is Common in COVID-19 and Associated with Hypoxemia.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to estimate the time to recovery of command-following and associations between hypoxemia with time to recovery of command-following. METHODS: In this multicenter, retrospective, cohort study during the initial surge of the United States' pandemic (March-July 2020) we estimate the time from intubation to recovery of command-following, using Kaplan Meier cumulative-incidence curves and Cox proportional hazard models. Patients were included if they were admitted to 1 of 3 hospitals because of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), required endotracheal intubation for at least 7 days, and experienced impairment of consciousness (Glasgow Coma Scale motor score <6). RESULTS: Five hundred seventy-one patients of the 795 patients recovered command-following. The median time to recovery of command-following was 30 days (95% confidence interval [CI] = 27-32 days). Median time to recovery of command-following increased by 16 days for patients with at least one episode of an arterial partial pressure of oxygen (PaO2 ) value ≤55 mmHg (p < 0.001), and 25% recovered ≥10 days after cessation of mechanical ventilation. The time to recovery of command-following  was associated with hypoxemia (PaO2 ≤55 mmHg hazard ratio [HR] = 0.56, 95% CI = 0.46-0.68; PaO2 ≤70 HR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.85-0.91), and each additional day of hypoxemia decreased the likelihood of recovery, accounting for confounders including sedation. These findings were confirmed among patients without any imagining evidence of structural brain injury (n = 199), and in a non-overlapping second surge cohort (N = 427, October 2020 to April 2021). INTERPRETATION: Survivors of severe COVID-19 commonly recover consciousness weeks after cessation of mechanical ventilation. Long recovery periods are associated with more severe hypoxemia. This relationship is not explained by sedation or brain injury identified on clinical imaging and should inform decisions about life-sustaining therapies. ANN NEUROL 2022;91:740-755.

Identification of Endotypes of Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients.

Background: Characterization of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) endotypes may help explain variable clinical presentations and response to treatments. While risk factors for COVID-19 have been described, COVID-19 endotypes have not been elucidated. Objectives: We sought to identify and describe COVID-19 endotypes of hospitalized patients. Methods: Consensus clustering (using the ensemble method) of patient age and laboratory values during admission identified endotypes. We analyzed data from 528 patients with COVID-19 who were admitted to telemetry capable beds at Columbia University Irving Medical Center and discharged between March 12 to July 15, 2020. Results: Four unique endotypes were identified and described by laboratory values, demographics, outcomes, and treatments. Endotypes 1 and 2 were comprised of low numbers of intubated patients (1 and 6%) and exhibited low mortality (1 and 6%), whereas endotypes 3 and 4 included high numbers of intubated patients (72 and 85%) with elevated mortality (21 and 43%). Endotypes 2 and 4 had the most comorbidities. Endotype 1 patients had low levels of inflammatory markers (ferritin, IL-6, CRP, LDH), low infectious markers (WBC, procalcitonin), and low degree of coagulopathy (PTT, PT), while endotype 4 had higher levels of those markers. Conclusions: Four unique endotypes of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 were identified, which segregated patients based on inflammatory markers, infectious markers, evidence of end-organ dysfunction, comorbidities, and outcomes. High comorbidities did not associate with poor outcome endotypes. Further work is needed to validate these endotypes in other cohorts and to study endotype differences to treatment responses.

Divergent COVID-19 Disease Trajectories Predicted by a DAMP-Centered Immune Network Model.

COVID-19 presentations range from mild to moderate through severe disease but also manifest with persistent illness or viral recrudescence. We hypothesized that the spectrum of COVID-19 disease manifestations was a consequence of SARS-CoV-2-mediated delay in the pathogen-associated molecular pattern (PAMP) response, including dampened type I interferon signaling, thereby shifting the balance of the immune response to be dominated by damage-associated molecular pattern (DAMP) signaling. To test the hypothesis, we constructed a parsimonious mechanistic mathematical model. After calibration of the model for initial viral load and then by varying a few key parameters, we show that the core model generates four distinct viral load, immune response and associated disease trajectories termed "patient archetypes", whose temporal dynamics are reflected in clinical data from hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The model also accounts for responses to corticosteroid therapy and predicts that vaccine-induced neutralizing antibodies and cellular memory will be protective, including from severe COVID-19 disease. This generalizable modeling framework could be used to analyze protective and pathogenic immune responses to diverse viral infections.

Development of a Synthetic Poxvirus-Based SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine

Modified Vaccinia Ankara (MVA) is a highly attenuated poxvirus vector that is widely used to develop vaccines for infectious diseases and cancer. We developed a novel vaccine platform based on a unique three-plasmid system to efficiently generate recombinant MVA vectors from chemically synthesized DNA. In response to the ongoing global pandemic caused by SARS coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), we used this novel vaccine platform to rapidly produce fully synthetic MVA (sMVA) vectors co-expressing SARS-CoV-2 spike and nucleocapsid antigens, two immunodominant antigens implicated in protective immunity. Mice immunized with these sMVA vectors developed robust SARS-CoV-2 antigen-specific humoral and cellular immune responses, including potent neutralizing antibodies. These results demonstrate the potential of a novel vaccine platform based on synthetic DNA to efficiently generate recombinant MVA vectors and to rapidly develop a multi-antigenic poxvirus-based SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate.

Disorders of Consciousness in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19: The Role of the Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Prevalence and etiology of unconsciousness are uncertain in hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We tested the hypothesis that increased inflammation in COVID-19 precedes coma, independent of medications, hypotension, and hypoxia. METHODS: We retrospectively assessed 3203 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 from March 2 through July 30, 2020, in New York City with the Glasgow Coma Scale and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) scores. We applied hazard ratio (HR) modeling and mediation analysis to determine the risk of SIRS score elevation to precede coma, accounting for confounders. RESULTS: We obtained behavioral assessments in 3203 of 10,797 patients admitted to the hospital who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Of those patients, 1054 (32.9%) were comatose, which first developed on median hospital day 2 (interquartile range [IQR] 1-9). During their hospital stay, 1538 (48%) had a SIRS score of 2 or above at least once, and the median maximum SIRS score was 2 (IQR 1-2). A fivefold increased risk of coma (HR 5.05, 95% confidence interval 4.27-5.98) was seen for each day that patients with COVID-19 had elevated SIRS scores, independent of medication effects, hypotension, and hypoxia. The overall mortality in this population was 13.8% (n = 441). Coma was associated with death (odds ratio 7.77, 95% confidence interval 6.29-9.65) and increased length of stay (13 days [IQR 11.9-14.1] vs. 11 [IQR 9.6-12.4]), accounting for demographics. CONCLUSIONS: Disorders of consciousness are common in hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19 and are associated with increased mortality and length of hospitalization. The underlying etiology of disorders of consciousness in this population is uncertain but, in addition to medication effects, may in part be linked to systemic inflammation.

Hypercoagulable viscoelastic blood clot characteristics in critically ill coronavirus disease 2019 patients and associations with thrombotic complications.

BACKGROUND: Critically ill coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients have frequent thrombotic complications and laboratory evidence of hypercoagulability. The relationship of coagulation tests and thrombosis requires investigation to identify best diagnostic and treatment approaches. We assessed for hypercoagulable characteristics in critically ill COVID-19 patients using rotational thromboelastometry (ROTEM) and explored relationships of D-dimer and ROTEM measurements with thrombotic complications. METHODS: Critically ill adult COVID-19 patients receiving ROTEM testing between March and April 2020 were analyzed. Patients receiving therapeutic anticoagulation before ROTEM were excluded. Rotational thromboelastometry measurements from COVID-19 patients were compared with non-COVID-19 patients matched by age, sex, and body mass index. Intergroup differences in ROTEM measurements were assessed using t tests. Correlations of D-dimer levels to ROTEM measurements were assessed in COVID-19 patients who had available concurrent testing. Intergroup differences of D-dimer and ROTEM measurements were explored in COVID-19 patients with and without thrombosis. RESULTS: Of 30 COVID-19 patients receiving ROTEM, we identified hypercoagulability from elevated fibrinogen compared with non-COVID-19 patients (fibrinogen assay maximum clot firmness [MCF], 47 ± 13 mm vs. 20 ± 7 mm; mean intergroup difference, 27.4 mm; 95% confidence interval [CI], 22.1-32.7 mm; p < 0.0001). In our COVID-19 cohort, thrombotic complications were identified in 33%. In COVID-19 patients developing thrombotic complications, we identified higher D-dimer levels (17.5 ± 4.3 µg/mL vs. 8.0 ± 6.3 µg/mL; mean difference, 9.5 µg/mL; 95% CI, 13.9-5.1; p < 0.0001) but lower fibrinogen assay MCF (39.7 ± 10.8 mm vs. 50.1 ± 12.0 mm; mean difference, -11.2 mm; 95% CI, -2.1 to -20.2; p = 0.02) compared with patients without thrombosis. We identified negative correlations of D-dimer levels and ROTEM MCF in these patients (r = -0.61; p = 0.001). CONCLUSION: We identified elevated D-dimer levels and hypercoagulable blood clot characteristics from increased fibrinogen on ROTEM testing in critically ill COVID-19 patients. However, we identified lower, albeit still hypercoagulable, ROTEM measurements of fibrinogen in COVID-19 patients with thrombotic complications compared with those without. Further work is required to externally validate these findings and to investigate the mechanistic drivers for these relationships to identify best diagnostic and treatment approaches for these patients. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Epidemiologic, level IV.

Frontotemporal EEG to guide sedation in COVID-19 related acute respiratory distress syndrome.

OBJECTIVE: To study if limited frontotemporal electroencephalogram (EEG) can guide sedation changes in highly infectious novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients receiving neuromuscular blocking agent. METHODS: 98 days of continuous frontotemporal EEG from 11 consecutive patients was evaluated daily by an epileptologist to recommend reduction or maintenance of the sedative level. We evaluated the need to increase sedation in the 6 h following this recommendation. Post-hoc analysis of the quantitative EEG was correlated with the level of sedation using a machine learning algorithm. RESULTS: Eleven patients were studied for a total of ninety-eight sedation days. EEG was consistent with excessive sedation on 57 (58%) and adequate sedation on 41 days (42%). Recommendations were followed by the team on 59% (N = 58; 19 to reduce and 39 to keep the sedation level). In the 6 h following reduction in sedation, increases of sedation were needed in 7 (12%). Automatized classification of EEG sedation levels reached 80% (±17%) accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: Visual inspection of a limited EEG helped sedation depth guidance. In a secondary analysis, our data supported that this determination may be automated using quantitative EEG analysis. SIGNIFICANCE: Our results support the use of frontotemporal EEG for guiding sedation in patients with COVID-19.

Development of a Synthetic Poxvirus-Based SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine.

Modified Vaccinia Ankara (MVA) is a highly attenuated poxvirus vector that is widely used to develop vaccines for infectious diseases and cancer. We developed a novel vaccine platform based on a unique three-plasmid system to efficiently generate recombinant MVA vectors from chemically synthesized DNA. In response to the ongoing global pandemic caused by SARS coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), we used this novel vaccine platform to rapidly produce fully synthetic MVA (sMVA) vectors co-expressing SARS-CoV-2 spike and nucleocapsid antigens, two immunodominant antigens implicated in protective immunity. Mice immunized with these sMVA vectors developed robust SARS-CoV-2 antigen-specific humoral and cellular immune responses, including potent neutralizing antibodies. These results demonstrate the potential of a novel vaccine platform based on synthetic DNA to efficiently generate recombinant MVA vectors and to rapidly develop a multi-antigenic poxvirus-based SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate.